05/27/2020 22:48

$S&P 500
if you're new to stock market- this note is for you:

it may not sound intuitive to a lot of new investors especially retail segment chasing FOMO rather than doing homework, but stocks have really disconnected from earnings estimates. Historical correlation betweeen S&P 500 & forward earnings estimates turned negative to approximately -0.90 since March 23rd, 2020.

Why is this a big deal?
Unprecedented policy intervention propped up market is acting like this is a start of a new bull market..

is it possible that we are in new bull ?? well, yes sure, but.. it would be a 1st time in history ever that we move to new bull market without running a course of recession and retesting of selloff lows.. it never happened in history. NEVER.

Can this time be different?? Except for CNBC talking heads and politically motivated WH spin doctors none of the big pro guys are buying into this.

once again - I'm not telling you not to buy. I'm only telling you do some basic homework besides reading nonsense comments posted by Webull's morons.. the catch is to buy ONLY strong balance sheet companies. Stuff which will survive a possible retest of March lows. I don't want to tell you what to buy so you don't think I have agenda.. I simply feel sorry for people, some of which just lost jobs and now may be talked into losing whatever savings they still have left. Stock market knows no friends..

I know it doesn't look like it's possible for a retest of March lows, but we witnessed exactly same market behavior throughout 2007-2009 and in previous recessions.. and the same people on tv were selling us same nonsense..

simply AVOID loading up on insolvent value traps only because you can buy those at 50-70% discount from all time highs. There's a reason why a given stock sold off by 70-80% from ATH. Would you buy a car with damaged engine only because someone offers it at 85% discount??

exactly same concept applies to stocks.. some of those companies are already insolvent. They must go bankrupt eventually, and only reason they still did not is because FED gave them loans to keep serving previous debt issues.. this is not a solution. This is crisis management.. we're in a political cycle and it's not politically expedient to allow massive uncontrolled bankruptcies..

a single most important rule of investing is not to lose what you're investing. Add less and collect. don't chase FOMO.. at the end, uncontrolled greed may prove very expensive to you and your families..

I hope this helps
Disclaimer: The comments, opinions and analysis expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and shoulk not be considered as individual investment advice or recommendations. Webull is not responsible or liable in any way for comments posted by pur users.


Share to:

Download the Webull App and join community for discussions about the post. Download

All Comments(5)

Spliffymushroom05/28/2020 05:27
well said πŸ‘πŸ˜ŽπŸ‘


Ken***com05/28/2020 02:54
Wow this was a powerful statement, thank you very much. You just cured my patients lol, because i was getting very anxious to buy. Thinking i missed the ride that everyone is celebrating, all because i wanted to take my time in these uncertain times we're in today.


Jos***com05/27/2020 23:17
yeah record unemployment and abnormal market gains. I feel like another correction is coming. when idk


Andyzooo05/27/2020 23:14
Well said


Mikeinnyc05/27/2020 23:02
I'll just leave this name here...Jessie Livermore.

wait for it...wait for it.


Hot Article
$AMC Ent Holdg We closed at 8.01 meaning we pushed the gamma squeeze so im uping my initial investment... adding 4 million right at ending of pre-market.... Congratulations πŸ’ŽπŸ™Œ we did it enjoy the rideπŸš€πŸš€πŸš€πŸš€πŸš€πŸš€πŸš€πŸš€πŸš€πŸš€πŸš€DeMartiniMillionaire 02/26/2021 23:42
$AMC Ent Holdg If anyone is wondering how we made it into 8.01 the last 5 seconds. SOME ONE BIG SAVED US Melo 02/27/2021 00:49
$AMC Ent Holdg who is this guy bought 900.000 shares before close? πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘Ferdi Abi 02/26/2021 23:45
$AMC Ent Holdg Wonder if this was the last straw look what time i bought my last 100 AtFlip1967 02/26/2021 21:02
$AMC Ent Holdg bxi***com 02/26/2021 23:49