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Ay2

01/09/2021 13:25

$NORTHERN GENESIS Alright. I need to make this post more accruate and correct some math. We can now deduce the average cost of a Lion truck (of course this will vary a lot) is $400k. Their CN sale was for 50 trucks valued at $20m. The Amazon agreement for 2500 trucks valued at $1b. I don’t know how much their buses cost but lets say a base model is about $300k.

One major city in Canada, Toronto, is buying 900 e-buses between 2018-2027 ... let’s say they are valued at $300k, that’s a minimum spend of $270m for one city in 10 years. If you start to add up major cities in USA/Canada, you can imagine how many buses and trucks will be required to replace old ICE buses/trucks. This was my original point... that the EV craze is justified (but I overestimated the cost of an e-bus). Lion will certainly get a lot of contracts in Canada since they already have the product line on the road (over 6 million miles driven) and already has the clients.

The only issue I see for Lion is proving they can expand efficiently. 2 new factories coming soon (new vehicle and battery factories... one likely in USA and other in Canada).
Disclaimer: The comments, opinions and analysis expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and shoulk not be considered as individual investment advice or recommendations. Webull is not responsible or liable in any way for comments posted by pur users.

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All Comments(7)

Ay201/10/2021 15:18
Lion has already “identified 6000 potential vehicles sales” in the next 4 years. So they certainly need the new factories they are planning.
(old news on their website about merger with NGA)

6000 vehicles @ $400k (average cost) =
$2.4 billion.

It seems the deeper you research Lion, the better it gets.

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StockShark01/10/2021 07:32
How do you think this stock would do if we hit crash?

Ay201/10/2021 12:29

Almost all stocks could obviously be impacted. If a crash happens soon, there will be a larger impact on any growth stock with uncertainty. However, governments around the world are pushing for EVs and this sector for e-bus and e-trucks will be less impacted than in the retail consumer market (cars). You could always set a stop loss for a portion of your investment to ensure you don’t lose too much during a quick drop (and buy back lower when market corrects). Longterm, I have no worries.

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jon***com01/09/2021 22:25
Well done, thank you

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Feves444501/09/2021 16:55
Nice DD- biden also wants all US buses (480,000) electric. Lion Should snag a decent portion of that future market

Ay201/09/2021 20:44

👍

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Met***com01/09/2021 14:47
Does lion have the space to produce all that is/gets ordered?

Ay201/09/2021 14:51

Technically not really. They can currently produce 2500 trucks/year. They need more factories to probably keep up with the known 300+ purchase orders (of who knows how many vehicles). But dont worry... their agreement with amazon somewhat ensures these 2 new factories will get going quickly. The new vehicle factory is going to be WAY larger than their existing one!

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Ay201/09/2021 14:33
Lion expects to drastically cut their manufacturing costs as well (by 50%). once new factories are up & running, that will be another indicator of healthy growth... if they can prove reduction in costs/vehicle and grow quickly, they will knock out (and perhaps acquire) smaller competitors.

I’m obviously going long. Just my opinion so be easy on me if I made a mistake or am proven wrong.

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Matt Swade Trades All Day 01/09/2021 13:57
so nice when webuller actually does real financial due diligence, instead of DD 😅

nice work

Ay201/09/2021 14:33

Thx.

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